War-torn Burma Goes to the Polls in Broadly Condemned Political Theater.

The nation is holding an election in a vote broadly rejected as a sham, with key opposition groups dissolved, many of their leaders jailed and a significant portion of the country unlikely to vote because of an ongoing internal conflict.

A Phased Ballot Amid Conflict

The ruling junta is holding a phased ballot nearly half a decade after it took control in a takeover, which sparked massive protests and spiralled into a devastating conflict.

Observers say the junta, with China's support, is attempting to validate and entrench its power as it looks for a way out of the devastating deadlock.

"The environment does not allow for the exercise of the rights of free speech, association or peaceful assembly," UN High Commissioner for Human Rights Volker Türk stated.

More than 200 people have been charged for disrupting or opposing the polls under a new law which carries severe punishments, including the possibility of execution.

Film director Mike Tee, actor Kyaw Win Htut and entertainer Ohn Daing were among the well-known individuals found guilty under the law, which was passed in July. They were each given a seven-year jail term after speaking out against a film endorsing the elections.

Logistical Nightmare and Coercion

Civilians are "facing pressure from all sides," Mr Türk noted in a comment, adding that armed rebel groups have made warnings urging people to boycott the polls.

The army has been fighting on several fronts, against both pro-democracy fighters who reject the coup, as well as ethnic armies which have their own forces. It lost control of large parts of the country in a string of defeats, but regained territory this year after relentless airstrikes made possible through support from China and Russia.

All of this and the fact that large parts of the country are still under opposition control presents a huge operational hurdle for holding an election.

A Restricted Poll

Voting is set to take place in three rounds over the coming weeks in two hundred and seventy-four of the country's 330 townships, with the remainder deemed too unstable. Results are expected around the end of January.

There is unlikely to be any voting in up to fifty percent of the country. Even in the townships that are voting, not all constituencies will hold elections, making it challenging to forecast a likely turnout.

Six parties, including the military-backed Union Solidarity and Development Party, are running nominees nationwide, while dozens more parties and non-aligned contenders will compete only at the local levels.

Approximately forty groups, including Aung San Suu Kyi's National League of Democracy, which achieved landslide victories in 2015 and 2020, have been dissolved. Suu Kyi and many of the party's senior figures have been jailed under charges widely condemned as fabricated, while others are in hiding abroad.

Criticism and Rejection

"By splitting the vote into phases, the authorities can adjust tactics if the outcomes in the first phase do not go their way," noted Htin Kyaw Aye, a spokesman of the election-monitoring group Spring Sprouts.

Western governments, including the UK and the European Parliament, have rejected the vote as a pretence, while neighbouring group Asean has urged political dialogue to come before any election.

The Burmese junta has rejected criticism of the polls, insisting that it aims to "return [the country] to a multi-party democratic system".

"The election is being held for Myanmar. It is being held for the citizens of Myanmar. It is not being held for the international community," a junta spokesman stated at a news conference last week.

Military leader Min Aung Hlaing warned earlier this week that those who choose not to participate are rejecting "progress toward democracy".