A decade after the UK embarked on a hasty public vote that divided the country and caused disorder, a caution emerges from beyond the Irish Sea: it could happen again.
Policymakers and electorate entered unwittingly Brexit and the identical may happen with a referendum on a united Ireland, triggering disturbances for which no one is prepared.
That conveys the caution from two leading journalists from each side of the Irish border who have collaborated to examine the pros and cons of Northern Ireland exiting the UK to create a different country with the Republic of Ireland.
Political Establishments Ill-Equipped
Fintan O’Toole and Sam McBride, have concluded that the political establishments in Ireland and Britain are woefully unready for a possibly fraught and monumental referendum.
"The key takeaway of Brexit remains unheeded, which is that developments can come out of the blue and can build support swiftly," the commentator remarked. "In my opinion that the institutional structure of our archipelago remains extremely volatile."
Released Volume Aims to Stir Debate
The team have examined the political, financial and societal arguments for any constitutional change in a volume, The Case For and Against Unification, issued by the Irish Royal Irish Academy.
They hope to encourage dialogue on the topic with a tour of lectures that will lead them to Westminster early next month.
"What concerns all parties, or ought to concern all involved, is the Brexit referendum of 2016," commented O’Toole.
"We should prevent a referendum on a thumbs up-thumbs down, ambiguous question whose results have not been clarified because then you land with an extremely divided society where those defeated are unable to accept defeat and the those successful lack clarity exactly what it is that they have won."
Constitutional Provision
Under the Belfast Agreement, the Northern Ireland official is obliged to schedule a referendum on Irish unification if it seems probable that a most voters would vote in favour.
Sinn Féin and other pro-unification groups say such a time is looming, and a organisation called Ireland’s Future has built momentum, but authorities in Dublin and London and unionists downplay the likelihood, making it uncertain whether or when there could be a national vote.
Lack of Informed Dialogue
Ideological statements for and against unity has obscured the absence of serious debate, said the journalist.
"Many are supportive or opposed the concept but the concrete planning which may surpass that to realise it is mostly absent. A lot has occurred in universities but very few elected officials or advocates seek to involve themselves with even the basics. To illustrate, what sort of state might be preferred? Unitary? Decentralised?"
Publication's Method
In the publication, none of the commentators supports unification or the existing arrangement. Each composes two essays that aim for objectivity in laying out the case for a unified Ireland and the argument against, gathering economic and societal data, past examples and structural examples.
Arguments encompass flags and symbols, levies, medical care, pensions, national debt responsibilities and the danger of unionist unrest. The goal is to enlighten and encourage discussion.
"There's huge interest in the subject but there hasn't quite been a debate," said the writer. "Discussion implies an acceptance of the concept that there might be reasonable perspectives on both sides."
Parallel Votes
A public vote in Northern Ireland would also trigger one in the Republic of Ireland, where voters claim they prefer unification but oppose increased taxation or adopting a new flag to acknowledge unionists' British culture.
"Policymakers in Ireland should determine what the proposal from nationalist groups is aside from just saying: 'We desire a united Ireland and we welcome you'," said the commentator.
Probability of Referendum
McBride considers a national vote in his era is possible and that it might occur unexpectedly. "It is possible just a irresponsible or a bad or a incompetent secretary of state who states: 'We should proceed and get it out of the way.'"
Both pro-unification advocates and pro-UK supporters have plausible, legitimate points, he stated. "One side will prevail on this issue and the other side will ultimately lose but both parties has got valuable insights to gain from the other's positions."
Appeal for Broader Debate
Westminster must engage with the debate, said the analyst. "This concerns the United Kingdom. It is a British question equally as it is an Irish issue."
